Changes in run‐off and sediment load in the three parts of the Yellow River basin,in response to climate change and human activities     

Chaojun Gu  Xingmin Mu  Peng Gao  Guangju Zhao  Wenyi Sun 《水文研究》2019,33(4):585-601

Hydrological regimes in the Yellow River have changed significantly because of climate change and intensive human interventions. These changes present severe challenges to water resource utilization and ecological development. Variation of run‐off, suspended sediment load (SSL), and eight precipitation indices (P1: 0–12 mm·day^?1, P12: 12–25 mm·day^?1, P25: 25–50 mm·day^?1, P50: P ≥ 50 mm·day^?1 and corresponding rainfall day: Pd1, Pd12, Pd25, Pd50 day year^?1) in three critical parts of the Yellow River basin (source region: SRYRB, upper reaches: URYRB, middle reaches: MRYRB) were investigated for the period from 1960 to 2015. The results show that run‐off and SSL significantly decreased (P < 0.01) in the URYRB and the MRYRB, whereas their decline in the SRYRB was insignificant (P > 0.05). Moreover, run‐off in the URYRB had one change point in 1987, and SSL in the URYRB as well as run‐off and SSL in the MRYRB had two change points (in the 1970s and the 1990s). Over the same period, only Pd1 and Pd12 in the SRYRB showed significant increasing trends, and an abrupt change appeared in 1981. The optimal precipitation indices for assessing the effects of precipitation on run‐off and SSL in the URYRB and MRYRB were Pd50 and P12, respectively. A double‐mass curve analysis showed that precipitation and human activities contributed to approximately 20% and 80% of the reduction in run‐off, respectively, for both the SRYRB and the MRYRB. However, the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities on SSL reduction was approximately 40% and 60% in the URYRB and 5% and 95% in the MRYRB, respectively. Human activities, primarily soil and water conservation measures and water extraction (diversion), were the main factors (>50%) that reduced the run‐off. However, the dominant driving factors for SSL reduction were soil and water conservation measures and reservoir interception, for which the contribution rate was higher than 70% in the MRYRB. This work strengthens the understanding of hydrological responses to precipitation change and provides a useful reference for regional water resource utilization.  相似文献   

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

基于手机位置数据的地震灾情指标选择     

庞晓克  聂高众  张昕  李华癑  夏朝旭  范熙伟  魏本勇 《中国地震》2019,35(1):144-157

选取四川阿坝州九寨沟县MS7.0地震、新疆博尔塔拉州精河县MS6.6地震、四川广元市青川县MS5.4地震作为案例分析,绘制活跃Wi Fi数量、无线网络联网设备数量、汇总在线设备数量、活跃基站数量等4种地震灾情指标在地震发生前后数量变化的折线图。根据与地震前1天变化情况的对比分析,验证地震灾情指标的可用性,选取出效果好的指标,这对进一步研究震后快速获取极震区位置、影响场方向等具有重要意义。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯方法的贵州高原百花水库水体营养盐变化及评价(2014—2018年)     

袁振辉  李秋华  何应  马欣洋  韩孟书  孙荣国  张华俊 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1623-1636

为了确定百花水库营养盐变化特征,选取百花水库5个监测点2014年1月-2018年7月共28个月份的水质实测数据,分析溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总磷和总氮的年际变化特征.采用基于熵权法赋权的贝叶斯理论对5个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,并结合水库的实际状况,从生态修复、工业污染源、沉积物中营养盐、水库季节性热分层及农业与生活污染源5个方面对其水质变化的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:2014-2018年水体环境波动较大;除总氮外,各污染指标浓度均有不同程度的下降;综合水质后验概率表明百花水库水质有逐渐变差的趋势;总氮和总磷治理应成为百花水库污染治理的主要方面;生态修复工程的开展和工业污染源的削减是百花水库水质转好的主要影响因素,农业与生活污染源的增加是百花水库水质转差的主要影响因素.  相似文献   

基于CMIP5模式鄱阳湖流域未来参考作物蒸散量预估   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘子豪  陆建忠  黄建武  陈晓玲  张玲  盛颖东 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1685-1697

预测未来气候情境下鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量(Reference crop Evapotranspiration,ET0)的时空分布可为流域水资源的优化管理,为科学应对气候变化对农业生产的影响提供基础数据支撑.利用鄱阳湖流域14个气象站点1961-2014年逐日气象数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算出历史ET0;基于同期美国环境中心(NCEP)再分析数据及2006-2100年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式在RCP4. 5和RCP8. 5情景下的预测数据,经统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)模拟和偏差校正,预测流域未来ET0;通过Mann-Kendall检验、普通克里金插值和空间自相关法分析了流域1961-2100年ET0的时空演变特征.结果表明:NCEP再分析资料与流域ET0建立的逐步回归降尺度模型模拟效果较好,CNRMCM5模式降尺度模拟结果经偏差校正后,精度明显提高,适宜流域未来ET0的预估.鄱阳湖流域在基准期1961-2010年ET0整体上呈减小趋势,空间分布上呈南北高、中间低的特点,表现出明显的空间差异性.RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来3个时期鄱阳湖流域ET0较基准期均呈不同程度的增加趋势,其空间分布整体表现为东高西低、局地略有突出;无论是在基准期或是未来情景下的3个时期,ET0均具有较强的空间自相关性.在RCP8.5情景下,鄱阳湖1961-2100年干旱指数呈现出较为明显的上升趋势,流域的干旱状况随时间加剧,2011-2100年间流域绝大部分地区由湿润区转为半湿润区,干旱指数自南向北递减,赣江流域将是鄱阳湖流域未来干旱风险的重点防范区.  相似文献   

浅地层剖面系统在福建沿海海底沉船调查中的应用     

李海东  胡毅  许江  林兆彬  刘伯然  王恒波  郑江龙 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(1)

海底沉船是水下文化遗产的一种重要类型和存在形式,利用综合地球物理手段对福建平潭、莆田及福州海域的海底沉船进行了探测研究,并重点探讨了不同浅地层剖面系统及不同探测频率在不同埋藏状态的水下文物调查中的应用。结果表明:浅地层剖面探测能够有效识别处于不同埋藏状态的沉船,尤其对探测埋藏海底面以下的沉船具有其他探测手段无法比拟的优势,但是探测频率的调节对目标物探测结果存在较大差异,对于埋藏式的海底沉船低频信号探测效果较理想。  相似文献   

基于DEA-TOBIT模型的我国港口业 上市公司经营效率研究          下载免费PDF全文

郭鹏  温艳萍 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(1):107-113

文章利用DEA-TOBIT两阶段法,对我国17家港口业上市公司2011—2016年经营效率及影响因素进行了测算和分析,并运用Malmquist指数对我国港口业上市公司的经营效率变化进行动态分析。研究结果表明:从静态效率分析,17家港口上市公司综合效率值相对较高,但维持在产出不变的情况下,港口公司投入仍有相对的节能空间;从动态效率上看,在研究期内17家港口上市公司的全要素生产率总体呈下降趋势,技术水平下降和规模效率的降低是造成全要素生产率降低的主要原因;从效率影响因素研究来看,总资产周转率、资产收益率、股权集中度和上市时间与港口经营效率呈正相关,企业的资产负债率对港口经营效率呈负向影响,企业的规模大小对港口经营效率的影响不明显。最后,根据实证结果,提出了科学合理的融资渠道组合,提高港口企业资产周转率;不断提升企业自身管理水平,科学控制企业规模;积极把握时代发展需求,加大企业技术创新,实现港口创新型驱动发展;大力建设港口组合,合作共享,协调发展等对策建议。  相似文献   

深圳市浴场用海定级研究          下载免费PDF全文

崔东阳  陈萍  吴桂敏  唐琳 《海洋学研究》2019,37(4):79-84

海域分等定级是制定海域使用金征收标准和开展海域资产价格评估的前提和依据。借鉴《海域定级技术指引(试行)》,遵循资源禀赋差异、收益差异、节约利用和生态用海的原则选取海域自然条件和海域区位条件2个定级因素及海水质量、海洋自然灾害等10个评价因子,构建深圳市浴场用海定级的评价指标体系。采用综合指数评价法计算出207个评价单元的得分情况,通过聚类分析方法和变异系数(CV)来校核级别,最终将浴场用海的海域划分为Ⅰ级(22.22%)、Ⅱ级(33.82%)和Ⅲ级(43.96%)3个级别。研究成果为海洋管理部门制定浴场用海不同级别的基准价格提供了依据。  相似文献   

地震信息网络数据的动态存储方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

龚明明  叶伦强 《地震工程学报》2020,42(4):1043-1048

为了提高地震信息网络数据存储的效率和稳定性,本文提出一种地震信息网络数据的动态储存方法。首先,设计和分析地震信息网络数据的动态存储系统中的硬件部分,基于Hadoop的分布式集群大数据动态存储系统,整合多台存储服务器,为一个集群系统,并平衡存储服务器负载情况,获取性能指标的比例值,通过加权公式获取综合性能参数,根据综合负载指标和服务器综合指标参数获取最佳存储服务器。对本文系统、高速数据存储系统和网络编码云存储系统进行大数据动态存储对比实验。实验结果表明:地震信息网络数据的动态存储耗时最短,存储效率最快;具有较高存储稳定性,且不会出现过载问题。  相似文献   

Assessing basin storage: Comparison of hydrometric- and tracer-based indices of dynamic and total storage     

Ciara D. Cooke  James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2020,34(9):2012-2031

Storage is a fundamental but elusive component of drainage basin function, influencing synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output and mediating basin sensitivity to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change. We compare hydrometric and isotopic approaches to estimate indices of dynamic and total basin storage, respectively, and assess inter-basin differences in these indices across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) region of southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage indices for the 20 study basins included the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (baseflow index BFI), Q ₉₉ flow and flow duration curve (FDC) slope. Ratios of the standard deviation of the streamflow stable isotope signal relative to that of precipitation were determined for each basin from a 1 year bi-weekly sampling program and used as indicators of total storage. Smaller ratios imply longer water travel times, smaller young water fractions (F _yw, < ~2–3 months in age) in streamflow and greater basin storage. Ratios were inversely related to BFI and Q ₉₉, and positively related to FDC slope, suggesting longer travel times and smaller F _yw for basins with stable baseflow-dominated streamflow regimes. Inter-basin differences in all indices reflected topographic, hydrogeologic and LULC controls on storage, which was greatest in steep, forest-covered headwaters underlain by permeable deposits with thick and relatively uniform unsaturated zones. Nevertheless, differential sensitivity of indices to controls on storage indicates the value of using several indices to capture more completely how basin characteristics influence storage. Regression relationships between storage indices and basin characteristics provided reasonable predictions of aspects of the streamflow regime of test basins in the ORM region. Such relationships and the underlying knowledge of controls on basin storage in this landscape provide the foundation for initial predictions of relative differences in streamflow response to regional changes in climate and LULC.  相似文献